Challenges to Global Economy – By. Dr. R. Seetharaman

Chief Executive Officer

The Annual IMF meeting which is going to be held at Tokyo this month will give Global economic outlook and the Fiscal Monitor. Advanced economies could experience another significant downturn, as continuing sovereign and banking tensions in Europe and the so-called fiscal cliff in the US threaten to put the brakes on growth. The meeting is expected to focus on growth and the measures to prevent further slowdown. Rescuing the Global economy and the next steps required for the same will be discussed. They are also planning to discuss on developing capacity for growth through partnerships. There should be structural reforms to improve growth and stimulate more jobs. Policy options for Jobs and growth is also expected to be discussed. Though the recent US Unemployment rate at 7.8% gives some hope, unemployment is still an issue in most advanced economies. Women are expected to play an active role in the current business environment and their role in private sector development is expected to discussed. Restoring public debt sustainability in a high risk environment is also something which is expected to be discussed. Debt-strapped Europe continues to remain the biggest risk to the global economy and the US fiscal cliff – automatic tax increases and spending cuts at year-end – are expected to sharply slow down already tepid growth in the world’s largest economy. If policymakers in the euro zone do not act with enough force and speed to quell their region’s debt crisis then things could worsen further. There needs to be more fiscal and banking integration in the euro zone. IMF meeting is expected to give emphasis on fiscal discipline from advanced economies, particularly from Euro Zone and U.S. Emerging economies are witnessing slowdown in recent times and the role of Asia in the changing World is expected to be discussed. We have to see how China plans to bring measures to overcome its slowdown. Slowdown in Australian economy is also a concern. Discussions are also going to happen on SME sector with experiences mainly from Japan and emerging economies. Financial stability is also another area which will have attention. Sovereign risks, capital markets and financial stability will be deliberated in this event. External shocks can come from decline in commodity prices and sudden stops in capital inflows In relation to Middle east and North Africa the jobs will be focused. The concerns of Iran prevail however after the Arab Spring, the Middle-east region should now have an “economic spring” which should plan and execute the future economic development. Developing/emerging economies will need to rebuild their buffers to ensure that they have adequate policy space. Some of these economies had adopted inflation-targeting and flexible exchange rates and made their fiscal and monetary policies more countercyclical, allowing them to stimulate and cool growth as necessary. The recent easing measures from various central banks have once again resulted in huge capital inflows to stock markets. Fighting poverty in times of crisis is also an important area which is going to be discussed in this event. The framework for IMF economic monitoring is also going to be reviewed and navigation through this interconnected world is also an area which is going to be discussed in this event. With risks of growth and inflation still persist the excess liquidity could result in bubbles being created in various part of the world. The early warning mechanisms should also be deliberated. Last but not the least IMF Meeting will focus on role of Next Generation Millennium development goals.